期望值管理
上周，一个朋友和我谈到期望值管理。根据他们做魔兽世界的经验，从引入开始到今天，一直有玩家在抱怨、在骂，很重要的一点是在玩家心目中，对魔兽的期望非常高，而魔兽的运营，从0到1，是一个新生意，必定需要时间和过程。
结合哪吒来看，用户的期望值就是哪吒的抓取要迅捷，投递要准时。为了这个期望值，我们在某些指标上，如确保每一个机器人24小时在线、全年99.9%后台无故障运营上，一直在努力，但差距还是有，汗一个。
下面就瞎想一下怎么管理这个期望值。
首先是要设定基本的期望值，一个合理的，与核心KPI匹配的基本期望值。象我们这样的凡人团队，在基本期望值搞定前，先别急着去膜拜Apple、Google，去想超越用户的期望。
其次是确保这个值与用户理解的一致。在《完美商店》里面，有讲到Ebay上市前社区要造反的精彩故事，原因是社区认为Ebay是他们的，而不仅仅是Pierre的。豆瓣07年的改版风波，很多人觉得导航的改变是很小的事情，但用户反弹如此厉害，本质上也是因为用户的期望值，用户认为这是他们的地盘。所以，这个值必须得有一致性，沟通好不容易。
第三是不断提高这个值的标尺。一点一点的改进，用敏捷迭代的改进来实现质变。
其实，在交友、家庭和生活中，也需要很好的管理期望值。老盯着别人的优点看，幸福度高就是这个意思。
注：
1、这是新年的第一篇博客。lancelot和我说有了微博，更需要整理思想，更需要定期写博客。10年得多写。
2、今年读的第一本书是《软件随想录》，这本书大大超出我的期望值，写的太好太好了。作者Joel Spolsky是真正的大牛，你可以用哪吒订阅他的blog更新提醒；译者就是知名blogger阮一峰，你可以用哪吒订阅他的blog更新提醒。
January 12th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
改版挺帅，特来道贺。
January 13th, 2010 at 1:12 am
谢谢Xdash，谢谢你上次的专业反馈
January 19th, 2010 at 8:50 pm
Hi! OqEfrQmT ZrJsHHJ
January 19th, 2010 at 8:59 pm
Hi! XbhRUPt pNJKyNf
January 19th, 2010 at 9:12 pm
Hi! yvLVVf HNdSdk
January 19th, 2010 at 10:55 pm
I can read about this stuff all day long, thanks for the write up my friend!
January 20th, 2010 at 12:08 am
You really out done yourself! I’m so new to this stuff, you make it so newbie like myself can easly wrap their heads around it, thanks!
January 20th, 2010 at 2:54 am
Thanks for write-up, it looks like you got it all figure out, no?
January 20th, 2010 at 7:58 am
Hi! lGMzvfdM IzSLAYu
January 20th, 2010 at 8:00 am
Hi! RlVmvVS MhSYuv
January 20th, 2010 at 8:07 am
Hi! gOugpZu NrXtBSY
January 20th, 2010 at 8:23 am
Hi! uwxoII dnIUjBOO
January 20th, 2010 at 8:23 am
Hi! NnWcgTi PHDKXsMe
January 20th, 2010 at 8:42 am
Hi! fNAIpJ JdfWCpG
January 20th, 2010 at 9:02 am
Hi! zUXgMr jmbaiyg
January 25th, 2010 at 5:25 pm
GcUjJP Buy Phentermine
January 25th, 2010 at 6:57 pm
WlAHYnv Buy Ambien
January 25th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
sYLvjUTJ Buy Tamiflu
January 27th, 2010 at 5:55 pm
NkFiiN Ambien
January 27th, 2010 at 6:40 pm
MGopJU Ativan
January 27th, 2010 at 7:43 pm
mioHiPVf Ativan
January 30th, 2010 at 6:49 pm
btZchgda Cheap viagra
February 1st, 2010 at 5:39 am
Have you ever considered adding more videos to your blog posts to keep the readers more entertained? I mean I just read through the entire article of yours and it was quite good but since I’m more of a visual learner,I found that to be more helpful well let me know how it turns out. Keep up the great works guys I’ve added you guys to my blogroll. This is a great article thanks for sharing this informative information.. I will visit your blog regularly for some latest post.
February 1st, 2010 at 12:12 pm
how to ollie…
[...] Learn how to ollie like a professional [...]…
February 6th, 2010 at 3:33 pm
fap turbo scam…
Und ein Ende ist bisher nicht in Sicht, denn auch ihr drittes Album “Gute Reise” wird ganz sicher ein Kassenschlager….
February 7th, 2010 at 8:01 pm
how to ollie…
[...] Be the best, ollie like the best [...]…
February 7th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
Great oaks grow from little acorns
February 8th, 2010 at 10:31 pm
cxWPmYc Cheap viagra
February 8th, 2010 at 11:48 pm
VStUqx Replica watches
February 10th, 2010 at 4:26 am
rPHYvEB Buy Valium
February 10th, 2010 at 1:10 pm
All cats are grey in the dark.
February 10th, 2010 at 2:34 pm
All’s well that ends well
February 10th, 2010 at 4:22 pm
Friendship is love with understanding
February 10th, 2010 at 8:34 pm
One is innocent until proven guilty.
February 10th, 2010 at 11:07 pm
eKSMOsl Cheap Valium
February 12th, 2010 at 9:34 pm
LAYXWTFa Tramadol
February 13th, 2010 at 7:13 am
A loaded wagon makes no noise
February 13th, 2010 at 3:57 pm
WuQYCw Cheap Cigarettes
February 15th, 2010 at 1:39 am
WvuNLan Cheapest Cialis
February 15th, 2010 at 8:54 am
Knowledge is power.
February 15th, 2010 at 6:26 pm
That’s one small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind. (The words of American astronaut Neil A. Armstrong making his first steps on the moon on July, 1969).
February 15th, 2010 at 8:23 pm
YDfFzDSK Ambien
February 16th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
hMVaid Cheapest Cialis
February 17th, 2010 at 11:11 am
恋爱和其他事情一样，在尚有可为的时候放弃努力，那是懦弱。在已经没有希望了的时候还在那里死不放手，哭哭啼啼，那是没有出息。不过想起曾经在一起的日子，心里总有点酸酸的感觉。我想初恋之所以美好，就是因为有那种蒙蒙的感觉吧。
。
人家的装备也渐渐赶上来了然后106
February 17th, 2010 at 5:08 pm
A woman’s place is in the home.
February 17th, 2010 at 8:22 pm
ccKhzEBa Xanax
February 18th, 2010 at 5:33 am
恋爱和其他事情一样，在尚有可为的时候放弃努力，那是懦弱。在已经没有希望了的时候还在那里死不放手，哭哭啼啼，那是没有出息。不过想起曾经在一起的日子，心里总有点酸酸的感觉。我想初恋之所以美好，就是因为有那种蒙蒙的感觉吧。
。
人家的装备也渐渐赶上来了然后113
February 19th, 2010 at 3:21 am
RixkPO Buy Xanax
February 19th, 2010 at 10:22 pm
GsXbNM Viagra
February 20th, 2010 at 12:48 pm
恋爱和其他事情一样，在尚有可为的时候放弃努力，那是懦弱。在已经没有希望了的时候还在那里死不放手，哭哭啼啼，那是没有出息。不过想起曾经在一起的日子，心里总有点酸酸的感觉。我想初恋之所以美好，就是因为有那种蒙蒙的感觉吧。
。
人家的装备也渐渐赶上来了然后80
February 20th, 2010 at 2:06 pm
恋爱和其他事情一样，在尚有可为的时候放弃努力，那是懦弱。在已经没有希望了的时候还在那里死不放手，哭哭啼啼，那是没有出息。不过想起曾经在一起的日子，心里总有点酸酸的感觉。我想初恋之所以美好，就是因为有那种蒙蒙的感觉吧。
。
人家的装备也渐渐赶上来了然后79
February 20th, 2010 at 11:00 pm
rUxVFPBY Cheapest Cialis
February 21st, 2010 at 8:18 pm
very impressive
February 22nd, 2010 at 6:40 am
恋爱和其他事情一样，在尚有可为的时候放弃努力，那是懦弱。在已经没有希望了的时候还在那里死不放手，哭哭啼啼，那是没有出息。不过想起曾经在一起的日子，心里总有点酸酸的感觉。我想初恋之所以美好，就是因为有那种蒙蒙的感觉吧。
。
人家的装备也渐渐赶上来了然后56
February 22nd, 2010 at 5:20 pm
The sun never sets on the British Empire.
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:28 pm
Hey there! I have to say I rather enjoy Your blog, it makes for an captivating Read! I hope to see more posts from you soon! Thanks!
February 23rd, 2010 at 2:28 pm
Hello there bro , sweet web there. I yahoo your blogkeep it going .I frankly love to browse your blog.Last of all have great day cheers!
February 23rd, 2010 at 6:37 pm
HsMFeQp Phentermine
February 24th, 2010 at 10:29 am
Looks like the source is missing can anyone provide a replacement? Thanks!
February 24th, 2010 at 9:56 pm
XBaJBg Cheap viagra
February 26th, 2010 at 8:40 pm
JSWNNCL Ambien
February 27th, 2010 at 8:05 pm
RkZgOiv Ambien
February 28th, 2010 at 2:59 pm
You can never step into the same river twice.
March 1st, 2010 at 1:07 am
EvchMjMP Cheap Tramadol
March 1st, 2010 at 10:22 pm
pGBXgcVH Cheap Cigarettes
March 4th, 2010 at 12:55 am
zicOhe Cheap Valium
March 6th, 2010 at 2:19 am
TLREsw Xanax
March 8th, 2010 at 3:14 pm
There is obviously a lot to know about this. I really didnt have a clue. Keep working ,great job!
March 9th, 2010 at 12:31 am
oSQhGjga Cialis
March 12th, 2010 at 12:43 am
hhisanS Valium
March 13th, 2010 at 12:27 am
hello great website yea nice work our review website will soon be adding reviews on websites and add them to our websites as the top best 10 blogs to visit we also do reviews on product recalls all types of reviews we will get back to you
March 13th, 2010 at 5:01 am
What did the silly boy take his bicycle to bed with him? Because he didnt want to walk in his sleep.
March 13th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
Super-Duper site! I am loving it!! Will come back again - taking you feeds also, Thanks.
March 13th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
yo good blog yea nice work I dont usually reply to posts but I will in this case. WoW Hey very nice blog!!
March 15th, 2010 at 3:38 am
IukpMNM Buy Cialis
March 16th, 2010 at 9:28 pm
Wenn Sie keine Fehler machen Sie machen nichts.
March 18th, 2010 at 2:13 am
zTsuOw Ambien
March 18th, 2010 at 10:04 pm
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. (One should study history to avoid mistakes of the past).
March 19th, 2010 at 7:00 am
dnQtTac Xanax
March 19th, 2010 at 2:12 pm
Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
March 20th, 2010 at 3:24 am
小S在事业最高峰的时候连生二胎，甘愿冒着地位可能被取代的危险。不过还好除了捧红一个陈汉典，这中间并没有出现能取代小S地位的女主持。人家的装备也渐渐赶上来了然后， 可是啊。缄默了65
March 20th, 2010 at 11:46 am
mDBoEcc
March 20th, 2010 at 6:15 pm
Hi, I found this blog post while was searching for merchandise related information on bing and found it very good article, thanks for sharing, best regards and cheers!
March 20th, 2010 at 9:00 pm
Love me, love my dog.
March 21st, 2010 at 11:06 pm
vYhLrgoR Phentermine
March 24th, 2010 at 5:23 pm
sehr interessante
March 24th, 2010 at 8:31 pm
EpnbUf MrGzngQ
March 27th, 2010 at 3:01 pm
Samantha…
Thanks for the great post…
March 28th, 2010 at 11:19 am
Iain…
Excellent, I’m reading this even though I can barely keep my eyes open. Superb….
March 28th, 2010 at 1:01 pm
Casino 1269771931…
Casino 1269771931…
March 28th, 2010 at 7:50 pm
buy cheap viagra…
buy cheap viagra very low prices, have erection all night long…
March 29th, 2010 at 2:45 am
PfwZWb Buy Phentermine
April 8th, 2010 at 7:17 pm
VJvHUtHN Cialis
April 11th, 2010 at 10:07 pm
Вы допускаете ошибку. Предлагаю это обсудить….
….
April 12th, 2010 at 2:30 am
Keep the good information comming, we need more authors like you!
April 19th, 2010 at 12:43 pm
deEfBPwM
April 20th, 2010 at 7:14 pm
oh my god…. I’ve never seen something soo beautiful
April 22nd, 2010 at 11:59 pm
It was extremely helpfull tender thanks you so much pro sharing. I inclination share it with my friends. Thanks
April 23rd, 2010 at 8:13 am
I appreciate your site very much. Will read all. Keep up to excellent writing on it. ty
April 23rd, 2010 at 11:24 am
The truth shall make you free.
April 24th, 2010 at 9:34 am
Don’t burn the (your) candle at both ends.
April 26th, 2010 at 3:29 pm
I need that like I need a hole in my head.
April 27th, 2010 at 7:40 am
ivLNIIRk VjdQhiz
April 27th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
I was pleased to read this article, keep up the good work.
April 28th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
hRlAnVEn Cheap Phentermine
April 29th, 2010 at 6:37 pm
lONMRlht Buy Viagra
April 30th, 2010 at 4:33 pm
INUGhWd Buy Camel
May 2nd, 2010 at 12:19 pm
JZnBFuw Viagra
May 3rd, 2010 at 10:38 pm
fpCZId Cheap Phentermine
May 3rd, 2010 at 11:06 pm
LsivCGX Valium
May 4th, 2010 at 4:46 am
Patience is bitter but it bears sweet fruit.
May 5th, 2010 at 1:52 pm
very impressive
May 5th, 2010 at 3:51 pm
qLyXmik Cialis
May 5th, 2010 at 5:14 pm
WIbRhhWV Buy Phentermine
May 5th, 2010 at 7:33 pm
All or nothing.
May 6th, 2010 at 7:25 am
You made some Good points there. I did a search on the topic and found most people will agree.
May 6th, 2010 at 4:19 pm
FjZLhZ Valium
May 7th, 2010 at 2:07 am
hey!, grazie moltissimo delle super info, sono state ottime.
May 7th, 2010 at 11:27 am
bTCcjDc Cheap Xanax
May 7th, 2010 at 1:05 pm
Don’t take the name of the Lord in vain.
May 7th, 2010 at 3:48 pm
dbpBXt Xanax
May 7th, 2010 at 6:10 pm
A winner never quits, and a quitter never wins.
May 7th, 2010 at 10:50 pm
A women’s work is never done.
May 8th, 2010 at 3:39 pm
The last straw will break the camel’s back.
May 8th, 2010 at 8:45 pm
A chain is no stronger than its weakest link.
May 9th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
UjRYpTvE buy Winston cigarettes
May 10th, 2010 at 2:57 pm
MexKvi Viagra
May 10th, 2010 at 4:40 pm
KoioaHe Buy Viagra
May 11th, 2010 at 4:00 pm
I’ve been visiting your blog for a while now and I always find a gem in your new posts. Thanks for sharing.
May 11th, 2010 at 8:20 pm
WfvZeciq Buy Viagra
May 12th, 2010 at 12:05 pm
uzdrag cialis bestellen
May 13th, 2010 at 3:19 pm
yhcNgmBI Buy Phentermine
May 14th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
RKfmoONz Xanax
May 14th, 2010 at 4:50 pm
vyCJsatW Buy Viagra
May 15th, 2010 at 6:32 pm
llPIVdvJ Viagra
May 15th, 2010 at 8:07 pm
TzCAlSc Buy Viagra online
May 16th, 2010 at 12:35 am
Hi, it’s a bit offtopic but may I ask you where did you get this blog template? I’m going to start bloggin as well, I’m a bit noob though but I really like it
Let me know… Anyway, nice website! 
May 17th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
dyYZxXc Cheap Valium
May 17th, 2010 at 3:08 pm
uuQFMjwr Cheap Phentermine
May 18th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
bnqiIt Cheap viagra
May 19th, 2010 at 12:28 pm
Между нами говоря ответ на Ваш вопрос я нашёл в google.com…
….
May 20th, 2010 at 6:09 pm
mqbXGKF Viagra
May 21st, 2010 at 6:00 pm
GIJDvju Buy Viagra
May 22nd, 2010 at 3:17 pm
zZQyaj Phentermine
May 27th, 2010 at 9:18 am
Hi webmaster - This is by far the best looking site I’ve seen. It was completely easy to navigate and it was easy to look for the information I needed. Fantastic layout and great content! Every site should have that. Awesome job
May 27th, 2010 at 3:24 pm
LZCoOeqS Cheap Valium
May 27th, 2010 at 6:15 pm
Yes you learn more while you share your knowledge with others. . . . . .
May 27th, 2010 at 7:09 pm
Thank you for another great article. Where else could anyone get that kind of information in such a perfect way of writing? I have a presentation next week, and I am on the look for such information.
May 28th, 2010 at 9:01 am
I Really realize what your position in this matter is. Though I should disagree on a number of the finer details, I think that you did a wonderful job explaining it. Definitely beats having to study it by myself. Thank you.
May 28th, 2010 at 11:19 am
jURBYW Cheap viagra
May 28th, 2010 at 6:06 pm
This post was very nicely written, and it also contains a lot of useful facts. I appreciated your professional manner of writing this post. Thanks, you have made it easy for me to understand.
May 28th, 2010 at 8:39 pm
aukBLpwn Buy Viagra online
May 29th, 2010 at 9:38 pm
fXQjBnJ Viagra
May 31st, 2010 at 12:56 pm
bSHdYdwq Buy Phentermine
May 31st, 2010 at 1:07 pm
GffKXaH Xanax
May 31st, 2010 at 5:00 pm
You certainly have some agreeable opinions and views. Your blog provides a fresh look at the subject.
June 1st, 2010 at 3:44 pm
Awesome Blog. I add this Post to my bookmarks.
June 1st, 2010 at 6:18 pm
KZzGejLv Buy Xanax
June 1st, 2010 at 8:45 pm
FSvUEMb Viagra
June 2nd, 2010 at 7:56 am
You certainly have some agreeable opinions and views. Your blog provides a fresh look at the subject.
June 2nd, 2010 at 12:35 pm
This is my second visit to this blog. We are starting a new initiative in the same niche as this blog. Your blog provided us with valuable information to work on. You have done a fantastic job.
June 2nd, 2010 at 7:39 pm
Substantially, the post is actually the sweetest topic on curing acne naturally. I concur with your conclusions and will thirstily look forward to your future updates. Just saying thanks will not just be sufficient, for the tremendous lucidity in your writing. I will right away grab your rss feed to stay abreast of any updates.
June 3rd, 2010 at 9:40 pm
hWqtVmn Buy Viagra
June 5th, 2010 at 8:27 am
Good day, I often read your blog.I love it, you focus on anything from sport, news, entertainment, adult topics or simply general topics. Carry on the nice work. Maybe you have pondered blogging for money?
June 5th, 2010 at 8:02 pm
jEDqiDsj Cheap viagra
June 5th, 2010 at 10:02 pm
xFVcAY Cheap Phentermine
June 8th, 2010 at 6:27 pm
Intimately, the post is in reality the freshest topic on this registry related issue. I concur with your conclusions and will eagerly look forward to your forthcoming updates. Saying thanks will not just be enough, for the wonderful clarity in your writing. I will immediately grab your rss feed to stay abreast of any updates.
June 9th, 2010 at 11:50 am
I really like your blog. You make it interesting to read and entertainging at the same time. I cant wait to read more from you.
June 10th, 2010 at 4:48 pm
ssDepLN Cheap viagra
June 10th, 2010 at 6:34 pm
32 inch lcd tv…
Really great post, keep up the writing…
June 10th, 2010 at 7:47 pm
mJjlaf Xanax
June 11th, 2010 at 2:56 am
Great site! I got a lot of very good info.!I’ll visit your site more often. Thanks for sharing..:)
June 12th, 2010 at 10:56 pm
LRIuTm Phentermine
June 13th, 2010 at 5:13 am
I always appreciate info like that!
June 16th, 2010 at 9:10 am
This author has written an excellent article. You have made your point and there is not much to argue about. Thanks for the info.
June 24th, 2010 at 9:21 am
Have you ever considered adding more videos to your posts to keep the readers more entertained? I mean I just read through the entire article of yours and it was quite good but adding a video to it would make it even more entertaining.
June 26th, 2010 at 6:05 pm
AITyaHv Viagra
June 28th, 2010 at 9:07 am
People who live in glass houses shouldn’t throw stones.(Those who are vulnerable should not attack others).
June 28th, 2010 at 5:40 pm
You write very detailed,Pay tribute to you.Couldn’t be written any better. Reading this post reminds me of my old room mate! He always kept talking about this. I will forward this article to him. Pretty sure he will have a good read. Thanks for sharing!
June 28th, 2010 at 9:01 pm
cHPANIG Buy Phentermine
June 29th, 2010 at 10:58 pm
Aw, this was a really quality post. In theory I’d like to write like this also - taking time and real effort to make a good article… but what can I say… I procrastinate alot and never seem to get anything done… Regards…
June 30th, 2010 at 9:46 pm
Early to bed and early to rise, makes a man healthy, wealthy and wise.
July 2nd, 2010 at 7:10 am
oUSCsN Cheap viagra
July 2nd, 2010 at 9:13 pm
qhDOsJE Viagra
July 3rd, 2010 at 12:51 am
IyqvUU Buy Viagra online
July 4th, 2010 at 7:17 am
Which came first, the chicken or the egg?
July 4th, 2010 at 1:07 pm
In this world nothing is certain but death and taxes.
July 5th, 2010 at 9:23 am
This author has written an excellent article. You have made your point and there is not much to argue about. Thanks for the info.
July 8th, 2010 at 1:21 pm
It never rains but it pours
July 9th, 2010 at 10:36 am
SMsZcbJ Buy Viagra online
July 11th, 2010 at 4:02 pm
TEAM JACOB FTW!
July 13th, 2010 at 6:54 pm
YzfwGnG Buy Cialis Online
July 22nd, 2010 at 5:53 am
Great post, very thorough discussion of the topic. Does anybody know where can find additional info on this subject? Thanks for any input.